Obama Oversaturation

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Whenever a commercial begins to play so often that it seems like it's airing every commercial break, I begin to lose patience with whatever it's advertising, even if it was something I tend to like or support. I'm curious how oversaturating the market with the same awful Obama ad every single break of Stargate Atlantis and Sanctuary is supposed to help Obama rather than just turning off any undecided voters who might be watching. People watch science fiction to get away from stuff like politics, not to have it show up every time the show takes a break. It would be different to do that on cable news, where most people watching are actually interested in what's going on in the world, or they wouldn't have that channel on. At least when I watch tonight's Heroes it will be on DVR.

It's bad enough that he's got his own channel now and intends to do a Ross Perot the week before the election, but the same tired commercial five times an hour is getting a bit annoying. I'm not at all sure it's an effective strategy in the longest election in American history, when most people are getting tired of the campaign and want it to be over, to get in everyone's face and encourage them to think of you as the late-night guest who just won't go home and let you go to bed in peace. That's not a way to make people happier to vote for you.


I'm not entirely certain that this is the Obama campaign smothering you with ads. Media buyers buy certain slots, with the golden calf being the primetime slots. If the Obama campaign is outspending all other media campaigns during those slots, those are the ads that are going to come up. I'm not saying that the campaign is shelling out bajillions of dollars in ad revenue, but rather, the large corporations that normally buy these slots could be seeing the campaign as a good time to back off a bit on the advertising. I.e. as the football season continues on...keep an eye on the number of beer commercials between quarters. Traditionally, as the season gets closer to the superbowl, you start seeing more and more beer ads. Same thing here.

What do you think of the "Bradley Effect" when combined with what you are saying here? See here for brief discourse:


Maybe people are just being pounded into submission by the ads when someone calls them and asks for whom they will be voting in November. Saying the word "Obama", in their minds, probably means that "maybe *NOW* they will leave me alone".

There are a lot of factors that polls can't capture well. The Bradley effect is one of them. We already know from last election that Republicans are less likely to answer exit pollsters out of embarrassment, and so exit polls disproportionately went for Kerry in 2004. The same could surely be true of phone polls too. If it sometimes has to do with race, it would explain why Obama tended to do worse in most primaries against Hillary than the most recent polls had expected. More of the undecideds were going for her every time, and one way to explain it is more who had already decided were Hillary voters who didn't want to admit it.

What you're suggesting seems to be something different, though. The Bradley effect is saying you're undecided when you're not. This would actually require people to say they're voting for Obama when they're planning to vote against him. I don't know of any evidence for that on a statistically significant level. There is evidence for the Bradley effect. But I suppose it might happen with some people.

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