Exit Poll Study


Mystery Pollster reports on the Edison/Mitofsky study on the highly unreliable exit polls of the 2004 elections. The main problem was in selecting which districts to poll but in the polls at each district not representing the votes at that district. A number of potential eplanations present themselves, but the data show that the exit pollsters in the following categories were more likely to have results that didn't reflect the votes at the precinct they were doing their intervies at:

* An interviewer age 35 or lower
* An interviewer with a graduate degree
* A larger number of voters, where a smaller proportion were selected
* An interviewer with less experience
* An interviewer who had been hired a week or less prior to the election
* An interviewer who said they had been trained "somewhat or not very well."
* In cities and suburbs
* In swing states
* Where Bush ran stronger
* Interviewers had to stand far from the exits
* Interviewers could not approach every voter
* Polling place officials were not cooperative
* Voters were not cooperative
* Poll-watchers or lawyers interfered with interviewing
* Weather affected interviewing

In a later post, Mystery Pollster responds to claims that the report disconfirms the reluctant Bush-voter hypothesis, and his reasoning sounds correct to me.


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