Global Warming Errors?

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I'd like to see someone who knows more than I do about global warming critique this revelation that one of the key pieces of evidence for global warming was rigged. Has anyone responded to this yet? Last I knew some of the conclusions that this evidence was supposed to refute seemed really plausible (e.g. that global warming has been slightly increased recently but has been on the increase for a long time and that there's little we can do about it). This evidence was supposed to refute that (though that was also based on evidence). Now the refutation seems suspect. Does anyone know more about this?

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Is global warming real and caused by human manipulation of the environment or a manufactured crisis? The politically correct position is that it is real and we are at fault. Anyone who questions that assumption is lumped in with Neanderthals and other ... Read More

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Thanks for this link - I'm very interested in global warming but have not seen any other articles on this particular subject. Although I don't have a background in the use of tree ring data I am very familiar with analysis that was described and read over the unpublished articles by Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick. From a mathematical standpoint the critique is dead on. The original analysis by Mann to support global warming is severely flawed to the point of being useless.

In addition, I duplicated McIntyre and McKitrick's Monte Carlo simulation as close as possible (they do not list their AR coefficients) and, using random data, got the same hockey-stick pattern used to support and motivate global warming.

The conclusion that one could draw from McIntyre and McKitrick�s critique is that tree-ring data does not support the global warming hypothesis. As the author of the article you linked to points out, this does not dispel global warming. It simply provides no supporting evidence for it.

Fascinating article.
As the author says, if the hockey stick is broken it is better that we know it. But there's plenty of evidence to support the thesis that global warming is the result of human activity - the overall case isn't especially damaged by this revelation I don't think.

I agree with Tim that the critique is dead on from a mathematical view. What I don't understand is why nobody has seen the problem before this. It could be that when somebody says that they normalized the data set to zero mean, unit variance, a reader will tend to trust that they did it properly since it is a very common thing to do.

Actually, Michael Crichton did criticize computer models about global warming after starting with similar critiques of nuclear winter alarmism during the Cold War and Carl Sagan's computer models for alien life. I've seen a number of people dismissing his critique out of hand with no arguments. I tried to find the transcript of his talk, but I couldn't locate it. All I have now is my blog post about it from early in my blog's history, and the link is dead. There doesn't seem to be a link anywhere on the rest of that site to that particular speech.

This Crooked Timber post indicates that the McKitrick paper had been refuted by Mann et al with no response from McKitrick.

There is no link to the rebuttal by Mann, so I cannot comment on the soundness of said rebuttal.

Anybody else have any further followup? I'd love to know what's going on here.

Well, that answers two questions, most importantly what people are saying in response to this, but it also has a link to the Michael Crichton piece I couldn't find.

complete update from McKitrick and McIntyre is available at http:// www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/fallupdate04/update.fall04.html . Note they will be presenting a paper at the American Geophysical Union meeting in December on this topic.

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